L2 Probability Past Papers
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AS91267Probability past exam papers
Every NZQA exam for AS91267 (Apply probability methods in solving problems) from 2012 to 2025, with its marking schedule, and from 2020 the examiners’ report, which says where students lost marks.
Papers by year
2020Archived copy
2019Archived copy
2018Archived copy
2017Archived copy
2016Archived copy
2015Archived copy
2014Archived copy
2013Archived copy
2012Archived copy
What the examiners keep saying
You need all three topics: two-way tables, probability trees and the normal distribution. Being weak in one commonly meant finishing at Achievement.
Reports: 2021, 2023, 2024 and 2025Interpret a relative risk in context and use it to judge the claim. Wording the conclusion when the relative risk is below 1 trips up many students.
Reports: 2021, 2023, 2024 and 2025With the inverse normal, many students found the z-value but couldn’t go on to find the missing value or the standard deviation. Check the sign of z.
Reports: 2021, 2023, 2024 and 2025Show working: a correct answer on its own gets very little credit. Draw a labelled normal curve for each normal-distribution part.
Reports: 2021, 2023, 2024 and 2025Don’t round too early. The 2024 and 2025 reports ask for probabilities to at least four decimal places, and expected numbers as whole numbers.
Reports: 2021, 2023, 2024 and 2025Expect to describe distributions with numbers: shape, centre and spread, a median read from a graph, skew, and why a normal model may not fit.
Reports: 2021, 2023, 2024 and 2025Be ready to set up and solve an equation from a tree diagram with an unknown probability.
Reports: 2023–2025
How to use these papers
- Start with the most recent papers. They are the closest to this year’s exam.
- Sit a whole paper without notes, then mark it with its schedule. The schedule shows what earns Achievement, Merit and Excellence in each part, not only the answer.
- After marking, read that year’s examiners’ report to see where other students lost marks.
- Check the 2026 assessment specification for what this year’s exam covers. An older paper can include something that has since changed.
About the older papers
NZQA takes papers off its website after five years. The older ones here are NZQA’s own files as saved by the Internet Archive, a non-profit library of the web, so they can be slow to open. We could only find the examiners’ reports from 2020 on.
Practise each topic in AS91267 with worked answers.
Open the Probability question bank →